Plans by close aides of President Goodluck
Jonathan to win re-election include exploiting
division in the ranks of the nation’s
governors, playing on the political ambitions
of some Northern power brokers and the
promotion of a clash of egos between the
leaders of All Progressives Congress, APC,
Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Gen. Muhammadu
Buhari (rtd.)
The plans, believed to have been prepared by
close aides of the President ahead of the 2015
election, identified the House of
Representatives, which the strategists claim to
have become the mouthpiece of the opposition,
the President’s ineffective utilisation of his
powers and the dominance of ethnic jingoists
around President Jonathan as some of the major
weaknesses for the president’s second term
campaign.
The strategists also cited APC, if it does not
implode, the Nigerian Governors’ Forum, the
Northern States Governors Forum, regional
alliances, especially in the North, as some
serious threats to the President in having a
smooth return to power.
The strategy document, entitled 2013-2015:
Political power and governance road map,
believed to have been prepared in the last
quarter of last year and had been the subject of
speculation, came to light yesterday when it
was published by Premium Times, an online
news platform.
The crux of the strategy is a SWOT analysis
which underpinned the President’s Strengths,
Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats in the
run up to the decisive election.
In the SWOT analysis, reproduced by Premium
Times, the President’s handlers also cited the
strengths of the President to include the power
of incumbency, access to secure cash, the
backing of a formidable political structure,
among others.
The document was produced after the split of
PDP, but before the exit of five governors, who
recently left the party for APC.
Senior Special Assistant to the President on
Public Communications, Dr. Doyin Okupe, said
he was on holiday yesterday, but claimed that
“if the President has a plan to win the 2015
elections, I can assure you that it can never be
found in Premium Times.”
The SWOT analysis read in part Strengths:
Power of incumbency and utilisation of
governance machinery, especially the careful
and legal deployment of its propaganda and
coercive apparatus; secure financial resources
base and leveraging on strategic media assets.
Others are formidable political apparatus—a
reformed, disciplined and tightly controlled PDP
— with significant presence in all the 36 states
and dominant control over 23 states;
Deep-rooted, nation-wide support structures in
the shape of Goodluck Support Group and
literally speaking, hundreds of youths, women
and regional affiliates controlled and supervised
by the more dominant support structures;
Effective and efficient implementation of the
transformation agenda in critical national
sectors; high personal likeability rating, which
has to be further strengthened and deepened;
When the chips are down, immense support
will be secured from the National Council of
State by ex-leaders who value continuity and
order over instability and chaos.
Weaknesses
•A less than forceful Presidential presence and
infective deployment and application of
presidential power
The perceived appropriation of presidential
advocacy space by exuberant partisans and
fanatical supporters who project a wrong image
of the presidency as a regional agenda. This
situation tends to alienate moderate political
forces across the country whose sense of co-
ownership of the presidency appears diminished
•A perceived sense of distance between the
Presidency and the PDP that has opened the
space for internal dissention and outright
rebellion by party stalwarts. This sense of
disinterest and disengagement has engendered a
culture of apology among Presidential
spokespersons whenever matters connecting Mr
President and the party appear on the public
sphere
•Following on the above, the reality of Mr
President being the leaders of the nation and
the LEADER OF THE PARTY is not sufficiently
grounded
•A technocratic cabinet that is not fully
politically engaged, especially in media
advocacy and community-wide outreach
programmes. This unhelpful situation out
burdens a handful regime insiders in their
constant defense of The Presidency and the
Transformation agenda
•A presidential communication strategy that is
weak on proactive propaganda and rapid
response
•Inability of Presidential power strategists to
manage the relationship between The
Presidency and the NASS to the degree that the
later, particularly the HOR, which is dominated
by the PDP, appears as an outfit and mouthpiece
of the opposition
•Problematic relationship between the
Presidency and some former heads of State
when, in actuality, they should constitute the
bedrock of his support
Opportunities
•Exploiting the current fractured state of the
NGF for maximum political advantage by
strengthening the co-operative faction and
sustaining the pressure on recalcitrant PDP
governors
•Exploiting the opportunities inherent in the
putative fracturing of the Northern Governors’
Forum by strengthening co-operative governors
and sustaining pressure, directly and through
different front organizations, on the
recalcitrant governors
•Playing on the political ambitions of regional
champions, especially in the North, to the
degree and extent that no unanimity of political
purpose and cohesive agenda is ever achieved
•The APC may appear as a formidable threat
initially but substantive opportunities will
abound when ambitions and egos clash among
its principal promoters. Strategic planning
should factor in the scenario in the designing of
intervention blueprint
•Exploiting the immense public opinion
opportunities in the current war against terror
in the North, especially given the steady
successes thus far recorded by the NSA, and the
military high command through the JTF
•Utilizing the social and economic empowering
and inclusive space provided by SURE-P,
particularly its integrated community
empowerment schemes, to advertise and show
case the populist and pro-people orientation of
the government
Threats.
There are sufficient grounds to believe that the
NASS continues to pose a threat to the effective
exercise of Presidential power in the areas of
budget-making processes and the on-going
amendments of the constitution with specific
reference to devolution of power and tenure of
elected officials.
Jonathan to win re-election include exploiting
division in the ranks of the nation’s
governors, playing on the political ambitions
of some Northern power brokers and the
promotion of a clash of egos between the
leaders of All Progressives Congress, APC,
Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and Gen. Muhammadu
Buhari (rtd.)
The plans, believed to have been prepared by
close aides of the President ahead of the 2015
election, identified the House of
Representatives, which the strategists claim to
have become the mouthpiece of the opposition,
the President’s ineffective utilisation of his
powers and the dominance of ethnic jingoists
around President Jonathan as some of the major
weaknesses for the president’s second term
campaign.
The strategists also cited APC, if it does not
implode, the Nigerian Governors’ Forum, the
Northern States Governors Forum, regional
alliances, especially in the North, as some
serious threats to the President in having a
smooth return to power.
The strategy document, entitled 2013-2015:
Political power and governance road map,
believed to have been prepared in the last
quarter of last year and had been the subject of
speculation, came to light yesterday when it
was published by Premium Times, an online
news platform.
The crux of the strategy is a SWOT analysis
which underpinned the President’s Strengths,
Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats in the
run up to the decisive election.
In the SWOT analysis, reproduced by Premium
Times, the President’s handlers also cited the
strengths of the President to include the power
of incumbency, access to secure cash, the
backing of a formidable political structure,
among others.
The document was produced after the split of
PDP, but before the exit of five governors, who
recently left the party for APC.
Senior Special Assistant to the President on
Public Communications, Dr. Doyin Okupe, said
he was on holiday yesterday, but claimed that
“if the President has a plan to win the 2015
elections, I can assure you that it can never be
found in Premium Times.”
The SWOT analysis read in part Strengths:
Power of incumbency and utilisation of
governance machinery, especially the careful
and legal deployment of its propaganda and
coercive apparatus; secure financial resources
base and leveraging on strategic media assets.
Others are formidable political apparatus—a
reformed, disciplined and tightly controlled PDP
— with significant presence in all the 36 states
and dominant control over 23 states;
Deep-rooted, nation-wide support structures in
the shape of Goodluck Support Group and
literally speaking, hundreds of youths, women
and regional affiliates controlled and supervised
by the more dominant support structures;
Effective and efficient implementation of the
transformation agenda in critical national
sectors; high personal likeability rating, which
has to be further strengthened and deepened;
When the chips are down, immense support
will be secured from the National Council of
State by ex-leaders who value continuity and
order over instability and chaos.
Weaknesses
•A less than forceful Presidential presence and
infective deployment and application of
presidential power
The perceived appropriation of presidential
advocacy space by exuberant partisans and
fanatical supporters who project a wrong image
of the presidency as a regional agenda. This
situation tends to alienate moderate political
forces across the country whose sense of co-
ownership of the presidency appears diminished
•A perceived sense of distance between the
Presidency and the PDP that has opened the
space for internal dissention and outright
rebellion by party stalwarts. This sense of
disinterest and disengagement has engendered a
culture of apology among Presidential
spokespersons whenever matters connecting Mr
President and the party appear on the public
sphere
•Following on the above, the reality of Mr
President being the leaders of the nation and
the LEADER OF THE PARTY is not sufficiently
grounded
•A technocratic cabinet that is not fully
politically engaged, especially in media
advocacy and community-wide outreach
programmes. This unhelpful situation out
burdens a handful regime insiders in their
constant defense of The Presidency and the
Transformation agenda
•A presidential communication strategy that is
weak on proactive propaganda and rapid
response
•Inability of Presidential power strategists to
manage the relationship between The
Presidency and the NASS to the degree that the
later, particularly the HOR, which is dominated
by the PDP, appears as an outfit and mouthpiece
of the opposition
•Problematic relationship between the
Presidency and some former heads of State
when, in actuality, they should constitute the
bedrock of his support
Opportunities
•Exploiting the current fractured state of the
NGF for maximum political advantage by
strengthening the co-operative faction and
sustaining the pressure on recalcitrant PDP
governors
•Exploiting the opportunities inherent in the
putative fracturing of the Northern Governors’
Forum by strengthening co-operative governors
and sustaining pressure, directly and through
different front organizations, on the
recalcitrant governors
•Playing on the political ambitions of regional
champions, especially in the North, to the
degree and extent that no unanimity of political
purpose and cohesive agenda is ever achieved
•The APC may appear as a formidable threat
initially but substantive opportunities will
abound when ambitions and egos clash among
its principal promoters. Strategic planning
should factor in the scenario in the designing of
intervention blueprint
•Exploiting the immense public opinion
opportunities in the current war against terror
in the North, especially given the steady
successes thus far recorded by the NSA, and the
military high command through the JTF
•Utilizing the social and economic empowering
and inclusive space provided by SURE-P,
particularly its integrated community
empowerment schemes, to advertise and show
case the populist and pro-people orientation of
the government
Threats.
There are sufficient grounds to believe that the
NASS continues to pose a threat to the effective
exercise of Presidential power in the areas of
budget-making processes and the on-going
amendments of the constitution with specific
reference to devolution of power and tenure of
elected officials.
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